What Marathon Oil’s Implied Volatility Says about the Stock
Marathon Oil’s implied volatility
As of September 26, 2017, Marathon Oil (MRO) had an implied volatility of ~32.4%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~39.8% at the end of 2Q17. Since the start of 3Q17, MRO stock has risen ~13.0%.
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MRO’s price range forecast
Based on MRO’s implied volatility of ~32.4% and assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, MRO stock is expected to close between $16.65 and $12.15 in the next 30 days. The stock should stay in that range 68.0% of the time. On September 26, 2017, MRO stock closed at $13.40.
Peer price range forecasts
As of September 26, 2017, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) has an implied volatility of ~25.4%, which means the stock is expected to close between $158.32 and $136.84 in the next 30 days. On September 26, PXD stock closed at $147.58.
As of September 26, 2017, EOG Resources (EOG) had an implied volatility of ~21.0%, which means EOG stock is expected to close between $102.69 and $91.05 in the next 30 days. On September 26, EOG stock closed at $93.22. Based on the inputs used in the calculation of the price range, there’s a 68.0% probability that the stock will close in that range for the given period.