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Marathon Oil Stock Was Flat in the Week Ending September 8

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Part 2
Marathon Oil Stock Was Flat in the Week Ending September 8 PART 2 OF 3

What Marathon Oil’s Implied Volatility Says about Its Stock

Marathon Oil’s implied volatility

As of September 8, 2017, Marathon Oil (MRO) had an implied volatility of ~35%, which is lower than its implied volatility of ~39.8% at the end of 2Q17.

What Marathon Oil’s Implied Volatility Says about Its Stock

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Price range forecast

Based on Marathon Oil’s implied volatility of ~35%, assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, its stock is expected to close between $12.05 and $10.93 in the next seven calendar days. Marathon Oil stock will stay in this range 68% of the time.

Peers’ price range forecast

As of September 8, 2017, Encana (ECA) had an implied volatility of ~43.1%. Its stock is expected to close between $10.05 and $8.91 in the next seven calendar days. On September 8, Encana’s stock price closed at $9.48.

Marathon Oil’s other peer Southwestern Energy (SWN) had an implied volatility of ~53.1%. Its stock is expected to close between $5.56 and $4.80 in the next seven calendar days. On September 8, Southwestern Energy’s stock price closed at $5.18.

Based on the inputs used to calculate the price range, there’s a 68% probability that the stocks will close in their range for the given period.

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