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What Lies ahead for Basic Energy Services in 2017

PART:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Part 5
What Lies ahead for Basic Energy Services in 2017 PART 5 OF 7

Basic Energy Services’ Next-7-Day Stock Price Forecast

Basic Energy Services’ implied volatility

On September 22, Basic Energy Services’ (BAS) implied volatility was ~79%. Since 2Q17 earnings were announced on July 27, Basic Energy Services’ implied volatility (or IV) has risen from 62% to the current level. Since July 27, BAS’s stock price has fallen nearly 40%.

BAS’s implied volatility rose sharply after the company announced the start of a public offering of common stock on August 3. Following the announcement, BAS’s IV rose from 56% on August 3 to 67% on August 4. BAS‘s stock price has fallen 22% from August 3 to September 22. BAS is 0.08% of the iShares Micro-Cap ETF (IWC). IWC rose 6% year-to-date compared to a 50% drop in BAS’s stock price during the same period.Basic Energy Services’ Next-7-Day Stock Price Forecast

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Basic Energy Services’ seven-day stock price forecast

Based on Basic Energy Services’ implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%, BAS’s stock will likely close between $19.13 and $15.35 in the next seven days. BAS’s stock price was $17.24 on September 22.

What does implied volatility mean for BAS’s peers?

Implied volatility (or IV) reflects investors’ views of a stock’s potential price movement. CARBO Ceramics’ (CRR) implied volatility on September 22 was ~63%, which implies CRR’s stock will likely close between $8.89 and $7.47 in the next seven days. Helix Energy Solution’s (HLX) implied volatility was 52% on the day, which implied HLX’s stock would likely close between $7.99 and $6.93 in the next seven days. Helmerich & Payne’s (HP) implied volatility was 28% on September 22, which indicates HP’s stock will likely close between $52.97 and $49.05 on the next seven days.

Next, we’ll discuss whether investors have shown interest in BAS’s stock, which its short interest indicates.

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