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Crude Oil Market: Is OPEC Its Own Worst Enemy?

PART:
1 2 3 4 5
Part 3
Crude Oil Market: Is OPEC Its Own Worst Enemy? PART 3 OF 5

Will US Crude Oil Prices Be Range-Bound this Week?

Energy calendar this week 

Let’s track some important events for crude oil and natural gas from July 24 to 28, 2017.

  • July 24: the OPEC and non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting in Russia
  • July 25: the American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly crude oil inventory report
  • July 26: the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report
  • July 27: the EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report
  • July 28: Baker Hughes will release its US oil and gas rig count report

Will US Crude Oil Prices Be Range-Bound this Week?

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Crude oil futures  

US crude oil (SCO)(IEZ)(XES)(XLE) prices are down almost 20% year-to-date due to bearish drivers. However, they have risen almost 5% due to the bullish drivers.

Moves in crude oil prices impact oil exploration and production companies like Apache (APA), Noble Energy (NBL), Bill Barrett (BBG), and Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI).

High and low 

US crude oil futures hit $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016—the lowest level in 13 years. In contrast, prices hit $54.45 per barrel on February 23, 2017—the highest level in more than 24 months.

US crude oil futures 

September US crude oil (IXC)(IYE) futures are above their 20-day moving averages of $45.59 per barrel as of July 21, 2017. They’re just below their 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of $46.96, $47, $49, and $51.5 per barrel as of July 21, 2017. The moving averages suggest that prices could trade between 20-day and 200-day moving averages.

US crude oil futures’ key support level is at $45 per barrel. In contrast, US crude oil futures’ key resistance level is $50 per barrel.

On July 24, 2017, the OPEC and non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting is taking place in Russia. If OPEC announces any surprise longer or deeper productions cuts, it might drive oil prices higher. Otherwise, prices could be range-bound this week.

In the next part of this series, we’ll look at how Cushing crude oil inventories impact prices.

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