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US Crude Oil Production and Rigs Drive Prices

PART:
1 2 3 4 5
Part 3
US Crude Oil Production and Rigs Drive Prices PART 3 OF 5

Why Crude Oil Price Forecasts Revised US Crude Oil Futures

Energy calendar this week  

Let’s track some important events for crude oil and natural gas on July 3–July 7, 2017.

  • July 4 – US stock exchanges will be closed due to the US Independence Day holiday.
  • July 5 – The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly crude oil inventory.
  • July 6 – The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly petroleum status report.
  • July 7 – The EIA will release its weekly natural gas inventory report.
  • July 7 – Baker Hughes will release its weekly US crude oil and natural gas rig count report.

Why Crude Oil Price Forecasts Revised US Crude Oil Futures

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Crude oil futures  

August US crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (BNO) (SCO) prices have fallen 13.4% in the past year. Prices have fallen 10% in last three months due to bearish drivers.

Lower crude oil prices have a negative impact on oil producers like Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO), Bill Barrett (BBG), Hess (HES), and QEP Resources (QEP).

Peak and low  

US crude oil prices settled at $54.45 per barrel on February 23, 2017—the highest level in more than two years. In contrast, prices hit $26.21 per barrel on February 11, 2016—the lowest level in more than a decade.

Crude oil price forecasts

Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecast that US crude oil prices would average $47 per barrel in 2017—compared to previous estimates of $52 per barrel. It also forecast that Brent crude oil prices would average $50 per barrel in 2017—compared to previous estimates of $54 per barrel.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch thinks that a rise in crude oil production from the US, Nigeria, and Libya and weak global crude oil demand could weigh on crude oil prices. Goldman Sachs also lowered the price forecast for US and Brent crude oil prices in the short term. For more on crude oil’s price forecast, read Hedge Funds’ Net Long Bullish Positions Hit a 10-Month Low.

In the next part, we’ll look at how Cushing crude oil inventories impact prices.

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