ConocoPhillips’s Price Range Forecast
ConocoPhillips (COP) has an implied volatility of ~26.4%, higher than its implied volatility of ~24.9% in the week ended June 23, 2017.
Other oil and gas stocks Devon Energy (DVN), CONSOL Energy (CNX), and Marathon Oil (MRO) have implied volatilities of ~38.9%, ~42.2%, and ~41.0%, respectively. All these companies have shown rises in their implied volatilities compared to their implied volatilities of ~34.7%, ~41.9%, and ~35.5%, respectively, from a month ago. Steep movements in crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) prices have caused this overall rise in implied volatility.
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Weekly price forecast
Based on its implied volatility of ~26.4% and assuming a normal distribution of prices via the bell curve model and a standard deviation of one, ConocoPhillips stock is expected to close in the range of $44.57–$41.43 after seven days. COP should stay in this range ~68% of the time based on the standard statistical formula.
30-day price range forecast
Based on its implied volatility of ~26.4% and assuming a normal distribution of prices via the bell curve model and a standard deviation of one, ConocoPhillips stock is expected to close in the range of $46.25–$39.75 after 30 days.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of ~9%. A stock’s implied volatility reflects the market’s opinion on its potential movements, but it doesn’t forecast direction. The option pricing model is used to calculate implied volatility. This means that the data are theoretical in nature, and there’s no guarantee that the forecasts will be correct.