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Why Southwestern Energy Stock Is Underperforming Natural Gas

PART:
1 2 3 4 5
Part 2
Why Southwestern Energy Stock Is Underperforming Natural Gas PART 2 OF 5

Southwestern Energy’s Stock Price Forecast for the Week

Southwestern Energy’s implied volatility

As of May 26, 2017, Southwestern Energy (SWN) had implied volatility of ~49.03%. Other natural gas (UNG) producers Range Resources (RRC) and Consol Energy (CNX) had implied volatilities of ~39.05% and ~36.31%.

Southwestern Energy’s Stock Price Forecast for the Week

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Stock price range forecast for the week

Assuming normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one, and based on its implied volatility of ~49.03%, Southwestern Energy’s stock is expected to close between $7.06 and $6.16 after seven calendar days. Based on the standard statistical formula, Southwestern Energy’s stock will stay in this range ~68% of the time.

The SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) has implied volatility of ~10.58%.

Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of the stock’s potential moves, but it doesn’t forecast direction. Implied volatility derives from the option pricing model, which means the data is theoretical and there’s no guarantee that these forecasts will be correct.

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