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Natural Gas: Decoding Key Drivers in 2Q17

PART:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Part 8
Natural Gas: Decoding Key Drivers in 2Q17 PART 8 OF 8

Higher US Natural Gas Price Forecasts for 2017 and 2018

Natural gas prices and the resistance level  

As of April 13, 2017, US natural gas prices are above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of $3.18, $2.98, $3.15, and $3.08 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), respectively. Prices suggest more bullish momentum for natural gas (BOIL) (UNG) (DGAZ) (GASL) prices.

If the weather drives demand, prices could even breach the key resistance of $3.50 per barrel in the short term. For more on natural gas price drivers and the weather, read Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.

Moves in natural gas prices can impact oil and gas producers’ earnings such as Memorial Resource Development (MRD), Cimarex Energy (XEC), and Southwestern Energy (SWN).

Higher US Natural Gas Price Forecasts for 2017 and 2018

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US natural gas price forecasts  

The EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on April 11, 2017. It estimates that natural gas prices could average $3.10 per MMBtu in 2017—2.2% higher than previous estimates. The EIA also estimates that natural gas prices could average $3.45 per MMBtu in 2018—0.2% higher than previous estimates. Natural gas prices averaged $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016 and $2.63 per MMBtu in 2015.

The impact  

President Trump’s proposed energy policies could increase US natural gas production. A rise in US natural gas and crude oil production will have a negative impact on natural gas prices.

Read Could Trump Impact US Natural Gas Production and Consumption for more on the natural gas market outlook in 2017. Also, read Hedge Funds Increase Bullish Bets on US Natural Gas for more on the natural gas price forecast.

Read What Can Investors Expect in the Crude Oil Market in 2017? and Are the US, Iran, and Libya Delaying the Oil Market’s Rebalance? for more analysis of crude oil prices.

For more energy-related analysis, visit Market Realist’s Energy and Power page.

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