ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Range Forecast for the Week
ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility
As of April 13, 2017, ConocoPhillips (COP) had an implied volatility of ~26.5%, which is ~19.0% below its 260-trading-day historical price volatility of ~32.7%.
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Stock price range forecast for the week
Assuming normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one, based on its implied volatility of ~26.5%, ConocoPhillips stock is expected to close between $50.40 and $46.84 after seven calendar days. Based on the standard statistical formula, ConocoPhillips’s stock will stay in this range ~68% of the time.
Other upstream stocks
As of April 13, 2017, California Resources (CRC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Southwestern Energy (SWN) have implied volatilities of ~82.4%, ~20.4%, and ~57.7%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has an implied volatility of ~12.7%. According to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust prospectus, “The Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index.”
Implied volatility shows the market’s opinion of the stock’s potential moves, but it doesn’t forecast direction. Implied volatility is derived from the option pricing model, which means the data is theoretical in nature and there is no guarantee these forecasts will be correct.