These Regimens Are Expected to See Solid Global Demand in 2017
Solid demand trends
In the nine months since its launch, Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) tenofovir alafenamide–based (or TAF) regimen, Genvoya, has managed to attain the status of the most prescribed regimen for all HIV groups treated in the United States. Combined with Descovy and Odefsey, Gilead’s TAF-based drugs captured 37% of its total prescription volume in 2016.
If TAF-based HIV drugs continue their rapid market penetration trend, Gilead Sciences’ share price could see a boost, along with the price of the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB). Gilead Sciences makes up ~7.1% of IBB’s total portfolio holdings.
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The above diagram shows the solid demand trends witnessed by Gilead Sciences’ TAF-based regimens due to their superior safety profiles. Patients have been gradually switching to these regimens from Gilead’s tenofovir disoproxil fumarate–based (or TDF) HIV therapies.
Further, around 10% of patients using TAF-based regimens are switching from non-Gilead therapies sold by peers such as Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). These new patient additions have resulted in incremental revenue growth for Gilead’s HIV franchise in 2016. To know more about this changing trend, read How Could TAF-Based Regimen Drive Gilead Sciences’s Growth?
International market performance
In 4Q16, Gilead Sciences’ HIV franchise witnessed a fall in revenue in the European market due to negative foreign exchange fluctuations and pricing pressures in France. Genvoya, however, is witnessing solid demand in newly launched European markets such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain.
In Spain, Genvoya has managed to become the most prescribed regimen to patients switching from other therapies, and it’s become the second-most prescribed regimen for patients who haven’t undergone any previous therapy. Gilead Sciences launched Genvoya in France in January 2016, and it plans to launch the drug in Italy in 2Q17.
In the next article, we’ll discuss Gilead Sciences’ strategy for its pre-exposure prophylaxis HIV therapies.