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Closing In on Year End and Reviewing Pfizer as an Investment

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Part 10
Closing In on Year End and Reviewing Pfizer as an Investment PART 10 OF 10

Pfizer Expects Ibrance to Become a Blockbuster Therapy

Ibrance growth prospects

Pfizer (PFE) expects Ibrance to help offset the revenue impact due to future generic erosion of blockbuster therapies such as Lyrica and Viagra. Ibrance is expected to enable Pfizer pose strong competition to other oncology players such as Merck (MRK), Celgene (CELG), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).

Pfizer Expects Ibrance to Become a Blockbuster Therapy

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Wall Street analysts estimate that Ibrance’s sales in 2016 will reach ~$2.2 billion, which would be a year-over-year (or YoY) decline of ~199.3%. In 2015, Ibrance accounted for ~1.5% of Pfizer’s total revenues. Analysts expect that Ibrance will make up about 4.1% of Pfizer’s total revenues in 2016.

If Ibrance manages to surpass these revenue targets, it may boost Pfizer’s share price as well as that of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). Pfizer makes up ~1.2% of DIA’s total portfolio holdings.

Approved indication

On February 3, 2015, the FDA approved Ibrance as a therapy for advanced breast cancer. According to an FDA press release, “Ibrance is intended for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative metastatic breast cancer who have not yet received an endocrine-based therapy. It is to be used in combination with letrozole, another FDA-approved product used to treat certain kinds of breast cancer in postmenopausal women.”

Since the launch of the drug, Ibrance has been used by 7,600 practitioners to treat 35,000 patients. The drug is approved in 14 international markets. On September 21, 2016, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (or CHMP) has recommended approval of Ibrance by the European Marketing Agency (or EMA). Pfizer expects to obtain EU approval for Ibrance by the end of 2016.

In 1H16, Ibrance earned revenues of ~$942 million. Based on recent market reports, in its 2Q16 earnings conference, Pfizer claimed that Ibrance had reached penetration level of about 43% in the first-line advanced breast cancer segment, 46% in the second-line segment, and 24% in the third-line segment.

With strong feedback from patients and physicians and support from the payer community, Pfizer is confident of Ibrance’s commercial success in the US.

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