August Manufacturing PMIs Affect Global Currency Trades

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Part 3
August Manufacturing PMIs Affect Global Currency Trades PART 3 OF 6

Euro-Dollar Driven by PMI Numbers

Eurozone manufacturing PMI

The Eurozone PMI (purchasing managers’ index) from Markit was released at 52.3 in August, slightly below the forecast and the previous level of 52.4. Looking at the individual PMIs of the major Eurozone countries, the French, Italian, and Spanish PMIs came in below forecasts and previous levels at 48.3, 53.8, and 53.2, respectively. Germany, the largest of Eurozone economies, was the only major economy beating manufacturing PMI forecasts. The German PMI came in at a 16-month high of 53.3, which helped prevent a major downturn in the Eurozone PMI.

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The euro-dollar reaction to the data

Though below the forecasts, the decent PMI numbers in August drove the euro-dollar currency pair to a high of 1.133. Later, on the expectations of strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI, the euro-dollar pair fell down. Again, as the day progressed, the US PMI numbers came out at a two-year low, which gave some bounce back in the pair, resulting in the euro-dollar pair rising to 1.1319 levels towards the end of the day on September 1, 2015.

Market impact

The iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF (HEWG) fell by 3.16%. The WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ) took a similar course and fell by 3.26%.

In terms of German ADRs (American depositary receipts) trading on US exchanges, Deutsche Bank (DB) and SAP (SAP) ended the day on September 1 with a drop of 2.87% and 2.48%, respectively, even after strong PMI numbers from Germany. Among the French ADRs, Alcatel Lucent (ALU) fell by 2.42% as the French PMI fell below its previous level.


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