<

Don't be fooled—this short week means lots of important releases

Don't be fooled—this short week means lots of important releases (Part 1 of 6)

Don’t be fooled—this short week means lots of important releases

The jobs report will be the highlight of the week ahead

Even though this is a short week, we still have a lot of data—with construction spending, the ISM data, and the jobs report. The jobs report will loom the largest for the bond market.

Nonfarm PayrollsEnlarge Graph

Economic data this week

Monday, September 1, 2014

  • Markets closed in observance of Labor Day

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • ISM Prices Paid
  • Construction spending
  • IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

  • Mortgage Bankers Association (or MBA) mortgage applications
  • ISM New York
  • Factory orders
  • Auto sales
  • Beige Book

Thursday, September 4, 2014

  • Initial jobless claims
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  • Challenger Job Cuts
  • ADP Employment Change
  • Trade balance
  • Unit labor costs
  • Productivity
  • Markit US Services PMI
  • Markit US Manufacturing PMI
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing

Friday, September 5, 2014

  • Non-farm payrolls
  • Unemployment rate
  • Average hourly earnings
  • Labor force participation rate
  • Consumer credit

Earnings reports this week

Wednesday, September 3

  • Toll Brothers (TOL)

Impact on mortgage REITs

Mortgage real estate investment trusts (or REITs), like American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Annaly (NLY), will focus on data that will move the bond market.

The labor market is driving the Fed right now, and bonds will focus primarily on Friday’s jobs report. Increases in average hourly earnings are the most important number. The Fed has pretty much acknowledged the unemployment rate isn’t the labor market indicator it used to be.

Impact on homebuilders

There’s a lot of data this week of interest to the builders. Certainly the big macro numbers like the ISM and the jobs report are important. But the biggest number will be construction on Tuesday.

We’re heading into the seasonally slow period of fall and early winter. Homebuilder analysts will focus on the geographies that are experiencing the most growth.

Impact on commercial REITs

Mall REITs like Simon Property Group (SPG) and General Growth Properties (GGP) will pay the most attention to the jobs report and consumer credit

Office REITs, like Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), will be interested in the jobs report and the ISM data.

The Realist Discussions