Should REIT investors try to trade on the Ukraine tensions?

Part 6
Should REIT investors try to trade on the Ukraine tensions? (Part 6 of 7)

Why investors should follow this week’s jobs releases

This week has some important jobs data

After last week’s deluge of economic data, we get a bit of a break this week. There really isn’t anything all that market-moving in the releases next week. Bonds will probably be driven by geopolitics and not data.

JOLT Job OpeningsEnlarge Graph

Economic data this week

Monday, March 10

  • No economic data

Tuesday, March 11

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism
  • JOLT Job Openings
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Wholesale sales

Wednesday, March 12

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Monthly Budget Statement

Thursday, March 13

  • Initial jobless claims
  • Retail sales
  • Import prices
  • Business inventories
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

Friday, March 14

  • Producer Price Index
  • University of Michigan Confidence

Earnings reports this week

Thursday, March 13

  • American Homes for Rent (AMH)

Impact on mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA) are highly interest rate–sensitive. The jobs report last week was the major report, but tapering seems to be on autpilot at this point, so you might not see any big moves out of the REITs on an exceptionally strong or weak number

Impact on homebuilders

Analysts will focus on the numbers that impact employment the most. The JOLTS Job Opening report will be important to them. The Producer Price Index will matter as well, since rising raw materials prices can depress margins. Earnings season is largely over, so builders will be keying off the strength of the spring selling season, which has more or less begun. Has the weather created pent-up demand?

Impact on commercial REITs

The retail sales numbers will be the prime focus of mall REITs like Simon Property (APG) and General Growth Properties (GGP), along with the JOLTS jobs report. Finally, consumer confidence data is always important for spending, so they will focus on the University of Michigan numbers and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort data as well.

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