<

Realist Real Estate Roundup 12/16-12/20

Part 5
Realist Real Estate Roundup 12/16-12/20 (Part 5 of 6)

Preview of the week ahead – Consumption and Christmas

Next week promises to be uneventful

With the Christmas holiday coming in the middle of the week, next week promises to be relatively dull. Many senior traders will take the entire week off, leaving only junior traders with orders not to take a position unless they absolutely have to. The past year has undoubtedly been terrible for bond desks and bond funds, so we won’t see traders swinging for the fences this late in the year.

michigan sentimentEnlarge Graph

Economic data this week

Monday, December 23

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index
  • Personal Income
  • Personal Spending
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures
  • Michigan Confidence

Tuesday, December 24

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Durable Goods
  • FHFA Home Price Index
  • New Home Sales
  • Richmond Fed

Wednesday, December 25

  • Gift Receipts Index

Thursday, December 26

  • Initial jobless claims
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

Friday, December 27

  • No economic data

Earnings reports this week

No real-estate related earnings this week

Impact on mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA) are highly interest rate–sensitive.  We already know where the Fed stands with tapering, so there really isn’t much more for the REITs to focus on. Originators will be relieved to hear that Mel Watt plans to delay the price increases for Fannie Mae loans. This is a positive for originators after a positively melancholy 2013.

Impact on homebuilders

Next week contains a lot of data that will be of concern to the builders. Personal Consumption and Consumer Confidence is a big deal to builders like Lennar (LEN) and Standard Pacific (SPF). We will also get some macroeconomic data with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Durable Goods.

The Realist Discussions