Why oil inventories were flat despite a bullish inventory report

Oil inventory figures reflect supply and demand dynamics and affect prices

Every week, the U.S. Department of Energy (the DOE) reports figures on crude inventories, or the amount of crude oil stored in various facilities across the U.S. Market participants pay attention to these figures because they can indicate supply and demand trends. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies either greater supply or weaker demand and is bearish for crude oil prices. If the increase in crude inventories is less than expected, it implies either weaker supply or greater demand and is bullish for crude oil prices. Crude oil prices highly affect earnings for major oil producers such as Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Hess Corp. (HES), Chevron (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM).

2013.11.21- Oil InventoriesEnlarge Graph

Smaller-than-expected inventory build: Positive for oil prices

On November 20, the DOE reported an increase in crude inventories of 375,000 barrels compared to analysts’ expectations of a crude oil inventory build of 412,000 barrels. The smaller-than-expected increase in inventories was a positive signal for oil prices. Also, other inventory data showed positive demand trends for gasoline and diesel, which are products of processed crude oil. All of this data was a positive signal for crude oil prices.

Despite the bullish inventory data, crude oil prices closed at $93.33 per barrel—nearly unchanged from the prior day’s close of $93.34 per barrel. However, minutes from the Federal Reserve had a negative effect on oil prices, as the Fed claimed it would look to reduce stimulus measures in the coming months. For more background, see Takeaways from the October FOMC minutes.

Background: U.S. crude oil production has pushed up inventories over the past few years

From a longer-term perspective, crude inventories had been much higher than where they were in the past five years at the same point in the year (though they had closed in under comparable 2012 levels for a period earlier this year). There has been a surge in U.S. crude oil production over the past several years. Inventories had accrued because much of the excess refinery and takeaway capacity had been soaked up, and it took time and capital for more to come online. This caused the spread between WTI Cushing (the benchmark U.S. crude, which represents light sweet crude priced at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma) and Brent crude (the benchmark international crude, which represents light sweet crude priced in the North Sea) to blow out.

However, over the course of 2013, this closed in considerably so that the two benchmarks traded almost in line again, as more takeaway capacity from the Cushing hub came online. Recently, however, the spread has widened back out (see Must-know: WTI-Brent oil spread hits widest point since February for more background).

Outlook

This week’s smaller-than-expected build in U.S. inventories was a positive short-term indicator for WTI crude prices, though news from the Federal Reserve dampened crude prices. WTI price movements and broader oil price movements affect on crude oil producers, as higher prices result in higher margins and earnings. Names with portfolios slanted towards oil such as Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Hess Corp. (HES), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) could see margins squeezed in a lower oil price environment. Plus, oil price movements affect energy sector ETFs such as the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), an ETF that includes companies that develop and produce hydrocarbons and companies that service them.