Unemployment still hasn’t fully recovered to pre-recession rates
Strength in the broader economy is positive for propane demand, as it generally translates into more consumer spending. Conversely, economic weakness can erode propane demand, as consumers are less willing or less able to purchase propane. Customer conservation of propane has been a persistent theme—especially since the financial crisis of 2008–2009. Though the economy has recovered significantly since the recession, unemployment still remains at historically high levels. If economic recovery falters and unemployment stagnates or increases, this would be a negative for propane distribution names such as Amerigas (APU), Ferrellgas (FGP), and Suburban Propane (SPH).
Propane demand also affected by housing starts
Housing starts (the number of privately owned housing units that started in a given period) have trended positively over the past year, but a slowdown in housing starts could negatively affect propane. Demand for new homes trends positively with economic strength and the strength of the residential real estate market, so weakness in the U.S. economy could dampen new home demand. A slowdown in housing starts could be a negative for propane demand, as some new homes constructed will use propane as the primary heating fuel.
Generally speaking, the U.S. economy has been improving since the financial crisis. However, weakness in the economy going into this winter heating season could sap propane demand and therefore result in reduced earnings for propane distributors.
- Part 1 - Why a warm winter could sap propane demand
- Part 2 - Why higher propane costs could cause lower sales volumes
- Part 3 - Why higher propane price volatility is a risk to distributors
- Part 4 - Higher oil prices are a potential double whammy for propane sales
- Part 5 - Why higher borrowing costs could deter propane name acquisitions
- Part 6 - Higher interest makes refinancing more costly for propane names
- Part 7 - Upward move in Treasury rates hurts yield names like propane MLPs
- Part 8 - Broad economic woes and slow housing starts affect propane sales
- Part 9 - Summary: The 8 trends that could affect propane names this winter
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