Realist mortgage applications review, September 9–13

Realist mortgage applications review, September 9–13 (Part 1 of 4)

Mortgage banking competition is rising despite stable rates

Every week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) puts out an index of mortgage application activity

Mortgage applications are relevant to a number of industries—from banks to non-banks, to mortgage REITs like Annaly (NLY) and American Capital (AGNC), to homebuilders like KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), and Toll Brothers (TOL). This series will break down the different indices and help you learn what insight you can glean from them. If you’re a bank, you’re looking at these indices and trying to determine whether you’re competitive in all the segments you want to be competitive in. If you’re a non-bank, you might be looking to see if you’re gaining share or losing share. If you’re a mortgage REIT, you’re focusing on the refinance index and what it might mean for prepayments going forward. And if you’re a homebuilder, you’re watching the purchase index as a way to gauge future demand.

Mortgage RatesEnlarge Graph

Mortgage rates fall slightly for the week

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell 3 basis points from 4.60% to 4.57% as the ten-year bond rallied from 2.93% to 2.88%. Last week was relatively data-light ahead of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, so rates were pretty stable. Mortgage applications rebounded smartly after a holiday-shortened week.

Mortgage banking has become a lot more competitive as rates have increased. The refinance business has fallen off a cliff and bankers are cutting employees and cutting rates. This is affecting the REITs that have banking exposure like PennyMac (PMT), Nationstar (NSM), and Redwood Trust (RWT). It’s so competitive in the jumbo space that the rate on jumbo loans has actually fallen below the conforming rate. That said, servicing has become a valued commodity, which helps Ocwen (OCN). As rates have stabilized, they’ve helped even the agency REITs with heavy leverage and duration exposure like American Capital Agency (AGNC).

This series will look at the three main MBA indices.

  • Part 2: The MBA Basic Index
  • Part 3: The MBA Purchase Index
  • Part 4: The MBA Refinance Index

We’ll start with the basic MBA Mortgage Applications Index.

The Realist Discussions

  • Matthew Mazurczak

    Going forward it appears that OCN is a no brainer investment. Interest rates are going to inevitably going to rise and take with the value of MSR. This should treat mortgage servicing companies such as OCN and NSM very nicely.

    Outside of the market changing around them the stock for OCN trades at a cheap forward PE in respect to expect ’14 earnings. Not to mention they will likely start to buy back stock and are authorized to buy back more then 20% of shares outstanding.

    Brent, any insight on what value the MSR’s are trading at now and an expected valued going forward?