Natural gas continues strong seven week rally

2013.04.05 - Natural Gas PricesEnlarge Graph

  • Natural gas prices closed the week on April 4 at $4.14/MMBtu, compared to the prior week’s close of $4.02/MMBtu. This is the seventh week in a row that natural gas has finished higher on the week.
  • Prices increased as colder than normal temperatures were predicted in certain colder climes and hotter than normal temperatures were predicted in certain hotter climes.

Natural gas spot prices closed at $4.14/MMBtu (millions of British thermal units) on 4/4/13, up $0.12 from the prior week, the seventh week in a row that gas prices have rallied. Higher natural gas prices are a positive catalyst for energy stocks, especially domestic independent upstream names with a large proportion of production comprised of natural gas such as Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Comstock Resources (CRK), and Quicksilver Resources (KWK). Higher natural gas price movement is also positive for the US Natural Gas Fund (UNG), an ETF designed to track the price of Henry Hub natural gas (the standard benchmark for domestic natural gas prices). Last week’s higher prices were largely driven by expectations of colder than normal temperatures in the near-term in north-central states and hotter than normal temperatures in Texas and the Southeast.

For much of the winter heating season, natural gas prices had been largely range-bound between $3.15/MMBtu and $3.50/MMBtu with much of the fluctuation due to changing winter weather expectations. However, since mid-February when prices bottomed out at $3.15/MMBtu, natural gas has experienced a strong rally and now trades at the ~$4.15/MMBtu range, mostly on sustained colder than normal weather.

Despite the strong rally over the past month, natural gas is still low from a long-term historical perspective. Over the past several years, a large amount of natural gas supply has come online without an equivalent increase in demand due to the discovery and development of large natural gas shale resources in the US. Many expect natural gas prices to remain relatively depressed as the development of the shale resources has allowed natural gas to be produced economically at lower prices.

2013.04.05 - Natural Gas Prices LTEnlarge Graph

Market participants and upstream energy companies monitor natural gas prices as lower prices translate into lower revenues, and therefore lower margins and valuation for natural gas producers. The below chart shows natural gas prices plotted against CHK’s and KWK’s stock price over time on a percentage change basis, and it appears that the companies’ valuation has tracked the price of natural gas quite closely.

2013.04.05 - NG vs CHK vs KWKEnlarge Graph

Last week saw a move up in natural gas prices, following six other weeks of positive price movement. The strong seven-week long rally is a positive medium-term catalyst. This most positively affects natural gas weighted producers such as the ones mentioned above (CHK, SWN, CRK, and KWK) and the US Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) and investors with such holdings find it prudent to track the price of natural gas.

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